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WASDE-668 Briefing - February 2026

Executive Summary

The February 2026 WASDE report (WASDE-668) presents a modestly tighter U.S. grain outlook compared to January, driven primarily by a 100 million bushel increase in U.S. corn exports that draws down ending stocks. Soybeans, soybean products, and wheat were largely unchanged. On the livestock side, beef and pork production forecasts were raised, with higher cattle and hog price projections. Cotton ending stocks grew on lower export expectations, while sugar saw a small production increase from Louisiana cane.

The January 2026 WASDE had been characterized by analysts as "very bearish" - with corn, soybean, and wheat ending stocks all at multi-year highs. The February revision partially offsets that bearishness for corn, but the overall supply picture remains comfortable across row crops.

Key Changes: February vs. January 2026

🌽 Corn — Tighter on Stronger Exports

• World corn ending stocks fell to 288.98 MMT (Jan: 290.91), down 1.93 MMT

• Ukraine exports cut 1.0 MMT (23.0→22.0), offset by higher U.S. and other exporters

• Mexico imports raised (25.80→26.30 MMT), reflecting stronger demand

• Despite the tightening, U.S. corn stocks remain at comfortable levels — still the highest in ~6 years

🫘 Soybeans — Unchanged Across the Board

• No revisions to U.S. soybeans, soybean oil, or soybean meal

• Soybean oil biofuel use steady at 14,800 mil lbs

• U.S. soybean exports remain at 1,575 mil bu — lowest in 13 years

• Ending stocks at 350 mil bu — highest in 6 years (bearish overhang persists)

🌾 Wheat — Marginally Looser

• U.S. wheat ending stocks edged up 5 mil bu on slightly lower domestic use

• World wheat ending stocks dipped to 277.51 MMT (Jan: 278.25), down 0.74 MMT

• World trade increased (221.96 vs 219.76 MMT), suggesting stronger global import demand

• Hard Red Spring stocks up 5 mil bu (218→231); Durum down 1 mil bu

🧶 Cotton — Bearish Shift on Lower Exports

• World production raised 0.43 mil bales; global stocks building

• U.S. export reduction reflects weaker demand signals

🍬 Sugar — Slightly Higher Production

• Louisiana cane sugar production raised; beet sugar unchanged

• Imports slightly lower (2,255→2,243); TRQ imports reduced

🥩 Livestock, Poultry & Dairy — Higher Meat Production, Higher Prices

 Beef Detail (2026):

• Production raised 185 mil lbs; imports up 50 mil lbs

• Total beef disappearance up to 29,157 mil lbs (per capita 59.5 lbs, up from 58.9)

Pork Detail (2026):

• Production raised 60 mil lbs; exports raised 50 mil lbs

• Total pork disappearance up to 22,303 mil lbs (per capita 50.5 lbs)

Risk Factors

🔴 Bearish / Downside Price Risks

1. Massive U.S. Grain Stocks Overhang: Despite the February tightening, corn ending stocks at 2.127 billion bushels remain near 7-year highs. Soybean stocks at 350 mil bu are the highest in 6 years. Wheat at 931 mil bu is also a 6-year high. This supply cushion caps upside price potential.

2. U.S. Soybean Export Weakness: Exports at 1,575 mil bu (lowest in 13 years) signal structural demand erosion — likely from Brazilian competition and trade friction. No improvement was made in February.

3. Cotton Demand Deterioration: U.S. cotton exports were cut 200,000 bales, pushing ending stocks higher. Global stocks also building — bearish for cotton prices.

4. Record Global Corn Production: World corn output at ~1,296 MMT is a record, with Brazil at 131 MMT and Argentina at 53 MMT providing ample Southern Hemisphere supply.

5. Higher Meat Production: Beef (+185 mil lbs) and pork (+60 mil lbs) production increases could pressure wholesale meat prices if demand doesn't keep pace.

🟡 Neutral / Watch Items

1. Ukraine Corn Export Reduction (-1 MMT): Geopolitical risk remains a wildcard. The 1 MMT cut in Ukraine corn exports (23→22 MMT) could widen if the conflict escalates, tightening global trade flows.

2. Sugar Stocks-to-Use at 15.9%: While slightly improved, U.S. sugar remains in a relatively tight position compared to historical norms. Any production disruption could quickly tighten the market.

3. Egg Market Volatility: Egg prices projected at 125 c/doz for 2026 (down sharply from 2025's 373.7 c/doz average), but avian influenza risk remains an ongoing threat to production.

🟢 Bullish / Upside Price Risks

1. Corn Export Pace Accelerating: The 100 mil bu corn export increase signals stronger-than-expected global demand. If this pace continues, further stock drawdowns are possible in subsequent WASDE reports. Mexico imports were raised, and U.S. competitiveness appears strong.

2. Cattle Prices Surging: Steer prices projected at $240/cwt for 2026 (up from $224 in 2025), reflecting tight cattle supplies from years of herd liquidation. This is a structural bull market in cattle.

3. Dairy Price Recovery: All-milk price raised to $18.95/cwt (from $18.25), a $0.70 increase. Milk production growth is modest, and demand appears supportive.

4. World Wheat Trade Increasing: Global wheat trade raised 2.2 MMT (219.76→221.96), suggesting import demand is firming — potentially supportive for wheat prices if production disappoints in 2026/27.

5. Spring/Summer Weather Risk: With the 2026 planting season approaching, any adverse weather in the U.S. Corn Belt or Plains could rapidly shift the supply outlook. Current large stocks provide a buffer, but a poor crop year would be amplified by already-low planted acreage intentions.

 Strategic Implications

Source: USDA WASDE-668 (February 2026) vs WASDE-667 (January 2026). Data reflects 2025/26 marketing year projections unless otherwise noted.